Biofuel Boom Could Push Food Prices Higher by 2030, T&E Warns

A new report from Transport & Environment (T&E) raises serious concerns about the trajectory of global biofuel demand. Driven by efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels amid high oil prices, biofuel consumption could surge by 30% in the near term and reach nearly 70% above current levels by 2030. The study argues that ambitious biofuel mandates are already contributing to rising food prices and may worsen fertiliser shortages worldwide.

The food vs. fuel dilemma, revisited

What this means for the energy transition

The report also feeds into the broader debate about which renewable pathways are truly sustainable. In the EU, the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) sets binding blending targets for transport fuels, but critics — including T&E — argue that advanced biofuels from waste and residues should replace first-generation crop fuels, not merely supplement them. Several member states are now revisiting their national implementation plans under this pressure.

For EV drivers and solar adopters, this study offers a data-backed argument: the electrification route avoids many of the systemic trade-offs that biofuel scaling creates. As battery costs fall and grid tariffs evolve, the case for electrons over ethanol continues to strengthen.